24%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 24% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of July 20, 2026 to July 26, 2026 · 550 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
4/5
Asked who the favourite is, 4 AIs out of 5 name Marine Le Pen.
10%
10% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 7% for the polling institutes themselves.
44%
ChatGPT dodges or refuses to answer 44% of the time, against 5% for Copilot.
74%
Copilot gives poll percentages in 74% of its answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
550
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 225 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 200 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 50 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 75 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe77 %19 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon70 %14 %
- Marine Le Pen63 %24 %
- Jordan Bardella *62 %19 %
- Gabriel Attal60 %4 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann46 %3 %
- Bruno Retailleau41 %4 %
- Marine Tondelier18 %4 %
- Emmanuel Macron *12 %5 %
- François Ruffin12 %0 %
Base: 550 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe97 %17 %
- Marine Le Pen89 %43 %
- Jordan Bardella *87 %25 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon84 %5 %
- Gabriel Attal78 %3 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann64 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau50 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier20 %0 %
- François Ruffin18 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *17 %7 %
Base: 225 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe73 %19 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon59 %10 %
- Gabriel Attal54 %5 %
- Jordan Bardella *47 %16 %
- Marine Le Pen46 %8 %
- Bruno Retailleau44 %9 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann37 %6 %
- Marine Tondelier18 %10 %
- Éric Zemmour11 %0 %
- Fabien Roussel7 %0 %
Base: 200 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon100 %44 %
- Jordan Bardella *60 %26 %
- Marine Le Pen58 %30 %
- Édouard Philippe24 %0 %
- Gabriel Attal24 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann4 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau4 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier4 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *2 %0 %
Base: 50 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe64 %35 %
- Gabriel Attal48 %8 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann43 %3 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon37 %31 %
- Marine Le Pen33 %7 %
- Bruno Retailleau33 %3 %
- Jordan Bardella *29 %5 %
- Emmanuel Macron *23 %9 %
- David Lisnard21 %0 %
- Laurent Wauquiez21 %0 %
Base: 75 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Philippe4 times out of 5 | Attal3 times out of 5 | Le Pen2 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Attal3 times out of 5 | 1 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Les principaux candidats | Philippe5 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | 2 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | – | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Le Pen2 times out of 5 | Mélenchon4 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Mélenchon4 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Philippe3 times out of 5 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Philippe3 times out of 5 | Philippe3 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Philippe3 times out of 5 | 3 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau3 times out of 5 | Retailleau5 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Philippe4 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | 2 AIs out of 5: Retailleau |
| Économie | – | – | – | Philippe4 times out of 5 | – | 1 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | – | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | – | Mélenchon4 times out of 5 | Philippe4 times out of 5 | 1 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Immigration | Retailleau5 times out of 5 | – | Le Pen2 times out of 5 | Zemmour4 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | 1 AIs out of 5: Retailleau |
| Écologie | Tondelier4 times out of 5 | Jadot4 times out of 5 | Tondelier5 times out of 5 | Tondelier5 times out of 5 | Tondelier5 times out of 5 | 4 AIs out of 5: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon3 times out of 5 | – | Mélenchon3 times out of 5 | Mélenchon4 times out of 5 | Philippe4 times out of 5 | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | – | – | – | Mélenchon2 times out of 5 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | 1 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Europe | – | Glucksmann5 times out of 5 | Glucksmann4 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | – | 2 AIs out of 5: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | Bardella4 times out of 5 | – | Bardella3 times out of 5 | Bardella3 times out of 5 | Bardella3 times out of 5 | 4 AIs out of 5: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | – | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon3 times out of 5 | Mélenchon5 times out of 5 | Mélenchon5 times out of 5 | Mélenchon5 times out of 5 | Mélenchon5 times out of 5 | 5 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Le Pen2 times out of 5 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | 2 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe5 times out of 5 | Philippe3 times out of 5 | Philippe3 times out of 5 | Attal3 times out of 5 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | 4 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
No notable change this week.
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT110 answers
- Dodges or refuses44 %
- Poll figures24 %
- Mentions polls63 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity110 answers
- Dodges or refuses6 %
- Poll figures13 %
- Mentions polls60 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini110 answers
- Dodges or refuses13 %
- Poll figures37 %
- Mentions polls60 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot110 answers
- Dodges or refuses5 %
- Poll figures74 %
- Mentions polls87 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode110 answers
- Dodges or refuses6 %
- Poll figures57 %
- Mentions polls66 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 38 %Media
- 10 %Poll aggregators
- 7 %Polling institutes
- 7 %Wikipedia
- 6 %Institutions
- 32 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- elyseescope.com196
- fr.wikipedia.org171
- tf1info.fr165
- youtube.com149
- lcp.fr131
- lemonde.fr131
- publicsenat.fr129
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr125
- facebook.com116
- lefigaro.fr98
Base: 3,334 citations this week (0 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« Il n'existe pas de réponse objective à la question de savoir quel candidat a le « meilleur » programme sur les retraites pour 2027. »
« Facebook · +1 Voici les éléments clés à retenir des enquêtes récentes : Marine Le Pen en tête : Créditée d'environ 33 % à 36 % des voix, elle a renforcé sa position après l'annonce de sa candidature. »
« YouTube · France Inter +3 Marine Le Pen (RN) : Se positionne favorablement dans les sondages auprès des plus de 65 ans en s'opposant à un durcissement de l'effort sur les retraités actuels. »
« Le choix dépend des priorités que l’on accorde à la justice sociale, à l’équilibre budgétaire ou à la soutenabilité du système. »
« Les enquêtes d'opinion les plus récentes placent généralement le candidat du Rassemblement National en tête du premier tour : Si Marine Le Pen est testée, elle est souvent créditée d'environ 34 à 36 % des intentions de vote au premier tour. »
« Selon les derniers sondages cités dans la presse, Jordan Bardella (Rassemblement national) est en tête des intentions de vote pour le 1er tour de la présidentielle 2027, avec environ 32% dans un baromètre Odoxa pour Public Sénat et la presse régionale (26 mai 2026). »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer" (CC BY 4.0 licence). Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W30, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W30
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 550 answers over 5 days.