44%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 44% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of October 12, 2026 to October 18, 2026 · 803 answers from 6 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
5/6
Asked who the favourite is, 5 AIs out of 6 name Marine Le Pen.
22%
22% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 4% for the polling institutes themselves.
18%
Gemini dodges or refuses to answer 18% of the time, against 1% for Copilot.
-6
Olivier Faure loses 6 points in a week: named in 4% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
6
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, LeChat
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
803
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 327 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 292 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 71 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 113 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon75 %16 %
- Marine Le Pen71 %44 %
- Édouard Philippe68 %10 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann50 %6 %
- Gabriel Attal45 %2 %
- Bruno Retailleau34 %2 %
- Jordan Bardella *24 %7 %
- Marine Tondelier16 %4 %
- Éric Zemmour13 %1 %
- Emmanuel Macron *12 %3 %
Base: 803 answers to 22 questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen91 %73 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon90 %8 %
- Édouard Philippe89 %2 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann60 %3 %
- Gabriel Attal54 %1 %
- Bruno Retailleau36 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *23 %2 %
- Emmanuel Macron *19 %5 %
- Éric Zemmour19 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier16 %0 %
Base: 327 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen66 %24 %
- Édouard Philippe62 %8 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon61 %19 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann50 %10 %
- Gabriel Attal41 %2 %
- Bruno Retailleau41 %6 %
- Jordan Bardella *23 %9 %
- Marine Tondelier21 %11 %
- Éric Zemmour12 %1 %
- David Lisnard8 %0 %
Base: 292 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon100 %30 %
- Marine Le Pen66 %44 %
- Jordan Bardella *51 %25 %
- Gabriel Attal16 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann14 %0 %
- Édouard Philippe10 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *6 %1 %
Base: 71 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe59 %40 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon49 %23 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann44 %11 %
- Gabriel Attal43 %5 %
- Bruno Retailleau32 %0 %
- Marine Le Pen27 %7 %
- Emmanuel Macron *24 %5 %
- Marine Tondelier16 %0 %
- François Bayrou15 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *14 %1 %
Base: 113 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | – | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen6 times out of 6 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 4 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | – | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 6 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 6 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Glucksmann2 times out of 5 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 4 | Glucksmann2 times out of 6 | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 6: Mélenchon |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Philippe3 times out of 4 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 4 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 6 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau5 times out of 7 | Retailleau5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Économie | Le Pen2 times out of 7 | – | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon2 times out of 3 | – | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | 1 AIs out of 6: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | – | Mélenchon3 times out of 5 | Le Pen6 times out of 6 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Immigration | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 5 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Retailleau3 times out of 5 | Le Pen3 times out of 5 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Écologie | Tondelier4 times out of 7 | Tondelier5 times out of 5 | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 5 | Tondelier5 times out of 6 | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 5 | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 5 | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon4 times out of 4 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 6: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann5 times out of 7 | Glucksmann5 times out of 5 | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 5 | – | Philippe3 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 6: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | – | – | Bardella4 times out of 5 | – | Bardella7 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 6: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | – | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 4 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon5 times out of 5 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 5 | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Glucksmann5 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 5 | Philippe6 times out of 6 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | – | Attal5 times out of 5 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (6). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 41.
- Marine Tondelier+4 pts
- Raphaël Glucksmann+4 pts
- Emmanuel Macron+3 pts
- Éric Zemmour+3 pts
- Gérald Darmanin-1 pts
- Édouard Philippe-1 pts
- Jordan Bardella-2 pts
- David Lisnard-2 pts
- Gabriel Attal-5 pts
- Olivier Faure-6 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses4 %
- Poll figures73 %
- Mentions polls64 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity108 answers
- Dodges or refuses7 %
- Poll figures35 %
- Mentions polls66 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses18 %
- Poll figures18 %
- Mentions polls53 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot103 answers
- Dodges or refuses1 %
- Poll figures72 %
- Mentions polls79 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode130 answers
- Dodges or refuses16 %
- Poll figures48 %
- Mentions polls65 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
LeChat154 answers
- Dodges or refuses6 %
- Poll figures70 %
- Mentions polls62 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 44 %Media
- 22 %Poll aggregators
- 4 %Polling institutes
- 3 %Wikipedia
- 5 %Institutions
- 21 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- lemonde.fr138
- elyseescope.com128
- publicsenat.fr108
- leparisien.fr74
- reuters.com73
- sondage-presidentielle.fr71
- fr.wikipedia.org68
- lefigaro.fr66
- lcp.fr63
- civiqo.fr61
Base: 2,337 citations this week (2,123 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« En résumé, il n'y a pas de consensus objectif : Les électeurs cherchant une rupture ferme et un accent mis sur l'autorité répressive se tournent plus volontiers vers les propositions de Marine Le Pen ou de la droite. »
« Raphaël Glucksmann Place publique — gauche sociale-démocrate Il vient de remporter, le 11 octobre 2026, la primaire de la gauche sociale-démocrate avec 66 % des voix. »
« Les sondages la placent régulièrement en tête sur ces questions, devant les candidats de la droite traditionnelle et du bloc central . »
« Déterminer quel candidat possède le programme économique le "plus solide" relève d'un choix subjectif et dépend des priorités accordées à la réduction de la dette, à la préservation des services publics ou à la relance par le pouvoir d'achat. »
« Au 12 octobre 2026, Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national) est en tête des intentions de vote pour le premier tour de la présidentielle 2027, avec une moyenne d’environ 33,9 % selon les derniers sondages publiés début octobre 2026. »
« Cependant, plusieurs personnalités politiques sont régulièrement mentionnées dans le débat public, à travers les intentions de vote ou les déclarations de candidature : Public Sénat Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national) : Souvent placée en tête des intentions de vote dans les sondages pour le… »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer". Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W42, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W42
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, LeChat, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 803 answers over 7 days.