45%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 45% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of September 14, 2026 to September 20, 2026 · 617 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
4/4
Asked who the favourite is, 4 AIs out of 4 name Marine Le Pen.
20%
20% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 12% for the polling institutes themselves.
18%
Google AI Mode dodges or refuses to answer 18% of the time, against 0% for Perplexity.
-5
Jordan Bardella loses 5 points in a week: named in 32% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
617
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 252 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 224 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 57 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 84 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon78 %18 %
- Marine Le Pen76 %45 %
- Édouard Philippe75 %9 %
- Gabriel Attal66 %4 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann56 %3 %
- Bruno Retailleau48 %1 %
- Jordan Bardella *32 %8 %
- Marine Tondelier23 %3 %
- Emmanuel Macron *16 %4 %
- Éric Zemmour15 %1 %
Base: 617 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen95 %79 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon93 %6 %
- Édouard Philippe91 %1 %
- Gabriel Attal78 %2 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann71 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau54 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *32 %1 %
- Marine Tondelier25 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *25 %7 %
- Éric Zemmour23 %0 %
Base: 252 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe73 %10 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon71 %21 %
- Marine Le Pen70 %22 %
- Gabriel Attal65 %6 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann57 %8 %
- Bruno Retailleau56 %3 %
- Jordan Bardella *35 %13 %
- Marine Tondelier27 %8 %
- Éric Zemmour11 %2 %
- Fabien Roussel9 %0 %
Base: 224 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon100 %32 %
- Marine Le Pen65 %33 %
- Jordan Bardella *51 %35 %
- Édouard Philippe30 %0 %
- Gabriel Attal23 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann14 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *5 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau2 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier2 %0 %
Base: 57 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe66 %38 %
- Gabriel Attal60 %5 %
- Marine Le Pen43 %14 %
- Bruno Retailleau39 %0 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon38 %32 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann36 %1 %
- Emmanuel Macron *35 %10 %
- François Bayrou26 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier21 %0 %
- François Ruffin19 %0 %
Base: 84 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Attal3 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Économie | Philippe4 times out of 7 | – | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | 2 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | 1 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Immigration | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Écologie | Tondelier4 times out of 7 | – | Tondelier6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Tondelier5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | 2 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann6 times out of 7 | – | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | Attal2 times out of 7 | – | 2 AIs out of 4: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | Bardella1 times out of 1 | – | Bardella4 times out of 7 | Bardella5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | – | – | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | Philippe5 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | – | Attal4 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 37.
- Bruno Retailleau+4 pts
- Emmanuel Macron+4 pts
- Éric Zemmour+3 pts
- Olivier Faure+2 pts
- François Ruffin+1 pts
- Gérald Darmanin-2 pts
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-2 pts
- Édouard Philippe-3 pts
- Raphaël Glucksmann-4 pts
- Jordan Bardella-5 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses7 %
- Poll figures62 %
- Mentions polls60 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity1 answers
- Dodges or refuses0 %
- Poll figures100 %
- Mentions polls100 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses11 %
- Poll figures26 %
- Mentions polls66 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot154 answers
- Dodges or refuses4 %
- Poll figures69 %
- Mentions polls74 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode154 answers
- Dodges or refuses18 %
- Poll figures40 %
- Mentions polls62 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 36 %Media
- 20 %Poll aggregators
- 12 %Polling institutes
- 4 %Wikipedia
- 7 %Institutions
- 21 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- ipsos.com114
- elyseescope.com106
- lemonde.fr99
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr81
- lefigaro.fr65
- leparisien.fr63
- elabe.fr55
- publicsenat.fr55
- fr.wikipedia.org50
- france-vote.fr47
Base: 1,645 citations this week (809 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« Il n'existe pas de consensus objectif sur le programme économique « le plus solide » pour l'élection présidentielle de 2027 , la solidité d'une politique économique dépendant des choix idéologiques, des priorités macroéconomiques (baisse de la dette, pouvoir d'achat, investissement vert ou justice… »
« Dans un sondage Toluna Harris Interactive réalisé début septembre, elle obtient 33 à 36 % au premier tour selon les scénarios. »
« Extrême droite Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national - RN) : Figure incontournable de ce camp, elle fait figure de favorite dans les intentions de vote pour le premier tour. »
« La question du « meilleur » projet pour l'Europe en 2027 est éminemment subjective et dépend des priorités politiques, économiques et géopolitiques de chacun. »
« Ipsos À ce stade, et à plus d'un an du scrutin, la situation politique se caractérise par plusieurs dynamiques principales observées dans les sondages (tels que ceux d'Ipsos, Elabe ou Harris Interactive) : La première place au premier tour : Marine Le Pen recueille régulièrement entre 33 % et 36 %… »
« Ipsos Centre et Majorité présidentielle : Édouard Philippe ( Horizons ) : Ancien Premier ministre, il fait partie des principaux challengers testés dans les configurations de premier tour, affichant une dynamique constante dans les sondages. »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer" (CC BY 4.0 licence). Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W38, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W38
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 617 answers over 7 days.