46%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 46% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of October 5, 2026 to October 11, 2026 · 624 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
4/5
Asked who the favourite is, 4 AIs out of 5 name Marine Le Pen.
18%
18% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 8% for the polling institutes themselves.
18%
Google AI Mode dodges or refuses to answer 18% of the time, against 3% for LeChat.
-11
Gabriel Attal loses 11 points in a week: named in 50% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, LeChat
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
624
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 256 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 228 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 57 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 83 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon73 %14 %
- Marine Le Pen71 %46 %
- Édouard Philippe69 %11 %
- Gabriel Attal50 %2 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann47 %6 %
- Bruno Retailleau33 %1 %
- Jordan Bardella *26 %5 %
- Marine Tondelier13 %3 %
- David Lisnard10 %1 %
- Éric Zemmour10 %1 %
Base: 624 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen89 %75 %
- Édouard Philippe88 %2 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon84 %4 %
- Gabriel Attal64 %2 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann59 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau33 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *32 %2 %
- Éric Zemmour16 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *13 %6 %
- Marine Tondelier12 %0 %
Base: 256 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen69 %27 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon67 %15 %
- Édouard Philippe66 %13 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann46 %12 %
- Gabriel Attal44 %2 %
- Bruno Retailleau41 %3 %
- Jordan Bardella *19 %7 %
- Marine Tondelier17 %8 %
- David Lisnard11 %2 %
- Éric Zemmour9 %2 %
Base: 228 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon100 %39 %
- Marine Le Pen63 %42 %
- Jordan Bardella *49 %19 %
- Édouard Philippe12 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann9 %0 %
- Gabriel Attal7 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau2 %0 %
- Éric Zemmour2 %0 %
Base: 57 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe59 %40 %
- Gabriel Attal51 %2 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon41 %23 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann37 %10 %
- Bruno Retailleau33 %1 %
- Marine Le Pen29 %8 %
- Emmanuel Macron *23 %12 %
- Olivier Faure17 %0 %
- David Lisnard16 %0 %
- François Bayrou16 %0 %
Base: 83 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen6 times out of 6 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | – | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Attal4 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen6 times out of 6 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen4 times out of 6 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau6 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Attal1 times out of 1 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Économie | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | – | Le Pen2 times out of 7 | 1 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | – | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Immigration | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Zemmour4 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Écologie | Tondelier3 times out of 7 | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | Glucksmann6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | Philippe5 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Glucksmann3 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 1 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Europe | Glucksmann5 times out of 7 | Glucksmann6 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | – | Philippe4 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | Bardella6 times out of 7 | Bardella1 times out of 1 | – | Bardella7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | – | – | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | Mélenchon5 times out of 6 | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Philippe5 times out of 5 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | – | Philippe1 times out of 1 | Philippe5 times out of 6 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 40.
- François Ruffin-2 pts
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-3 pts
- Marine Le Pen-3 pts
- Fabien Roussel-6 pts
- Éric Zemmour-7 pts
- Bruno Retailleau-7 pts
- Édouard Philippe-7 pts
- Marine Tondelier-9 pts
- Raphaël Glucksmann-11 pts
- Gabriel Attal-11 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses3 %
- Poll figures69 %
- Mentions polls62 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses12 %
- Poll figures23 %
- Mentions polls55 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot22 answers
- Dodges or refuses5 %
- Poll figures77 %
- Mentions polls73 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode140 answers
- Dodges or refuses18 %
- Poll figures41 %
- Mentions polls59 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
LeChat154 answers
- Dodges or refuses3 %
- Poll figures58 %
- Mentions polls58 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 36 %Media
- 18 %Poll aggregators
- 8 %Polling institutes
- 6 %Wikipedia
- 9 %Institutions
- 22 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- elyseescope.com113
- fr.wikipedia.org84
- lemonde.fr79
- publicsenat.fr72
- ipsos.com70
- tf1info.fr65
- touteleurope.eu54
- leparisien.fr46
- linternaute.com45
- sondage-presidentielle.fr42
Base: 1,664 citations this week (359 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« En 2027, plusieurs personnalités politiques françaises sont déjà officiellement candidates à la présidentielle, mais il est impossible de dire aujourd’hui qui deviendra président avant les résultats officiels. »
« Il est déjà officiellement candidat et arrive actuellement deuxième dans plusieurs scénarios de sondage, autour de 16 % dans une enquête récente. »
« À ce stade précoce de la campagne pour 2027, aucun sondage spécifique récent ne désigne un gagnant incontesté sur la seule "crédibilité sécurité", celle-ci se confondant largement avec la notoriété globale des leaders de la droite et du Rassemblement national sur ces sujets régaliens. »
« Il est impossible de désigner objectivement un programme économique « le plus solide » pour l'élection présidentielle de 2027, dans la mesure où la notion de solidité dépend des orientations politiques, des priorités et des modèles économiques que l'on privilégie. »
« Public Sénat Voici un aperçu des dynamiques observées dans les enquêtes récentes (notamment à l'automne 2026) : YouTube En tête au premier tour : Marine Le Pen recueille généralement entre 30% et 34% des suffrages selon les instituts et les hypothèses de candidatures testées. »
« À la date du 4 octobre 2026 , les sondages disponibles placent Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national) en tête des intentions de vote pour le premier tour de la présidentielle de 2027 . »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer" (CC BY 4.0 licence). Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W41, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W41
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, LeChat, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 624 answers over 7 days.