30%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 30% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of August 10, 2026 to August 16, 2026 · 770 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
5/5
Asked who the favourite is, 5 AIs out of 5 name Marine Le Pen.
18%
18% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 8% for the polling institutes themselves.
16%
Google AI Mode dodges or refuses to answer 16% of the time, against 1% for ChatGPT.
+7
Raphaël Glucksmann gains 7 points in a week: named in 50% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
770
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 315 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 280 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 70 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 105 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe75 %11 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon70 %16 %
- Marine Le Pen63 %30 %
- Jordan Bardella *62 %17 %
- Gabriel Attal60 %5 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann50 %4 %
- Bruno Retailleau38 %2 %
- Marine Tondelier17 %3 %
- Emmanuel Macron *13 %3 %
- François Ruffin11 %0 %
Base: 770 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe93 %6 %
- Marine Le Pen92 %55 %
- Jordan Bardella *83 %19 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon82 %7 %
- Gabriel Attal72 %4 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann65 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau44 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *22 %6 %
- Marine Tondelier18 %0 %
- Éric Zemmour16 %0 %
Base: 315 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe68 %9 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon62 %16 %
- Gabriel Attal55 %6 %
- Jordan Bardella *52 %16 %
- Marine Le Pen48 %13 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann45 %9 %
- Bruno Retailleau44 %6 %
- Marine Tondelier19 %7 %
- Fabien Roussel8 %0 %
- Éric Zemmour6 %0 %
Base: 280 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon97 %36 %
- Marine Le Pen53 %27 %
- Jordan Bardella *53 %34 %
- Gabriel Attal37 %0 %
- Édouard Philippe29 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann10 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau4 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *4 %0 %
- François Ruffin4 %0 %
- François Bayrou3 %0 %
Base: 70 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe70 %41 %
- Gabriel Attal51 %9 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann42 %1 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon39 %32 %
- Bruno Retailleau30 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *29 %6 %
- François Ruffin26 %0 %
- Marine Le Pen24 %5 %
- François Bayrou22 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier21 %0 %
Base: 105 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Attal4 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Attal5 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Attal5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Philippe3 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Philippe5 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau5 times out of 7 | Retailleau5 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Économie | Philippe7 times out of 7 | – | Attal4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | 1 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | – | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Immigration | Retailleau5 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Retailleau6 times out of 7 | Retailleau5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Retailleau |
| Écologie | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | Jadot7 times out of 7 | Tondelier6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | Attal3 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | 1 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann6 times out of 7 | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | Bardella5 times out of 7 | – | Bardella7 times out of 7 | Bardella7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Philippe3 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Attal7 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 32.
- Raphaël Glucksmann+7 pts
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon+6 pts
- Fabien Roussel+2 pts
- François Hollande+2 pts
- Marine Tondelier-2 pts
- François Ruffin-2 pts
- Gérald Darmanin-2 pts
- David Lisnard-2 pts
- Laurent Wauquiez-3 pts
- Emmanuel Macron-3 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses1 %
- Poll figures68 %
- Mentions polls69 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity154 answers
- Dodges or refuses5 %
- Poll figures34 %
- Mentions polls62 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses12 %
- Poll figures30 %
- Mentions polls57 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot154 answers
- Dodges or refuses5 %
- Poll figures83 %
- Mentions polls81 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode154 answers
- Dodges or refuses16 %
- Poll figures53 %
- Mentions polls62 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 45 %Media
- 18 %Poll aggregators
- 8 %Polling institutes
- 4 %Wikipedia
- 4 %Institutions
- 21 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr224
- elyseescope.com188
- lemonde.fr160
- lcp.fr142
- tf1info.fr119
- lefigaro.fr118
- publicsenat.fr111
- fr.wikipedia.org94
- ifrap.org91
- elabe.fr90
Base: 3,138 citations this week (4,309 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« Juger de la « solidité » d'un programme économique est un exercice complexe et subjectif, car cela dépend des priorités politiques, des choix idéologiques et des modèles économiques privilégiés par chacun. »
« Le RN domine les sondages avec environ 33–35 % d’intentions de vote au premier tour, que ce soit avec Le Pen ou Candidats présidentielle 2027 : fiches et programmes SP2027 Le bloc central est divisé entre plusieurs figures (Attal, Philippe, Darmanin), ce qui pourrait affaiblir sa Présidentielle… »
« L Le Les principaux candidats Jordan Bardella (Rassemblement national) — Il est actuellement l’un des mieux placés dans les sondages et apparaît comme le principal candidat du RN si Marine Le Pen ne pouvait pas se présenter. »
« Il n’existe pas de “candidat le plus crédible” unanimement reconnu sur la sécurité pour 2027 : chaque camp met en avant des mesures différentes, et la crédibilité dépend des priorités de l’électeur (sévérité judiciaire, prévention sociale, coopération européenne, etc.). »
« Dans un sondage Ipsos/BVA-CESI de juin 2026, Bardella est crédité de 36–37 % selon les configurations, contre 32 % pour Marine Le Pen . »
« À ce stade, la personne le plus souvent donnée “favorite” pour l’élection présidentielle française de 2027 dans les sondages est Marine Le Pen (RN). »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer" (CC BY 4.0 licence). Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W33, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W33
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 770 answers over 7 days.