30%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 30% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of August 17, 2026 to August 23, 2026 · 770 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
4/5
Asked who the favourite is, 4 AIs out of 5 name Marine Le Pen.
18%
18% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 7% for the polling institutes themselves.
18%
Gemini dodges or refuses to answer 18% of the time, against 0% for ChatGPT.
-8
Jordan Bardella loses 8 points in a week: named in 53% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
770
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 315 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 280 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 70 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 105 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe68 %11 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon67 %18 %
- Marine Le Pen60 %30 %
- Gabriel Attal56 %5 %
- Jordan Bardella *53 %12 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann45 %3 %
- Bruno Retailleau39 %3 %
- Marine Tondelier18 %2 %
- Gérald Darmanin12 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *11 %2 %
Base: 770 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe79 %7 %
- Marine Le Pen78 %54 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon76 %8 %
- Jordan Bardella *68 %10 %
- Gabriel Attal63 %3 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann51 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau43 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *20 %4 %
- Marine Tondelier19 %0 %
- Gérald Darmanin17 %0 %
Base: 315 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe69 %9 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon61 %19 %
- Gabriel Attal54 %6 %
- Marine Le Pen50 %15 %
- Jordan Bardella *48 %14 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann48 %8 %
- Bruno Retailleau45 %9 %
- Marine Tondelier19 %6 %
- Fabien Roussel9 %0 %
- Éric Zemmour7 %0 %
Base: 280 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon94 %43 %
- Marine Le Pen66 %23 %
- Jordan Bardella *53 %29 %
- Gabriel Attal46 %0 %
- Édouard Philippe26 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann17 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau11 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier1 %0 %
- Fabien Roussel1 %0 %
- François Bayrou1 %0 %
Base: 70 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe59 %33 %
- Gabriel Attal46 %11 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon37 %31 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann37 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau28 %1 %
- Marine Le Pen27 %7 %
- Gérald Darmanin26 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier24 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *23 %4 %
- François Bayrou21 %0 %
Base: 105 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau7 times out of 7 | Retailleau5 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Retailleau |
| Économie | Philippe5 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | Attal4 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Immigration | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Retailleau4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Retailleau5 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Retailleau |
| Écologie | Tondelier5 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | Tondelier6 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | 2 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | Bardella5 times out of 7 | – | Bardella5 times out of 7 | Bardella7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Philippe3 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Attal5 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Attal7 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 33.
- Gérald Darmanin+7 pts
- Sébastien Lecornu+2 pts
- Emmanuel Macron-1 pts
- François Ruffin-3 pts
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-3 pts
- Marine Le Pen-3 pts
- Gabriel Attal-4 pts
- Raphaël Glucksmann-5 pts
- Édouard Philippe-7 pts
- Jordan Bardella-8 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses0 %
- Poll figures62 %
- Mentions polls70 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity154 answers
- Dodges or refuses7 %
- Poll figures29 %
- Mentions polls69 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses18 %
- Poll figures12 %
- Mentions polls55 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot154 answers
- Dodges or refuses3 %
- Poll figures77 %
- Mentions polls79 %
- Outdated knowledge1 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode154 answers
- Dodges or refuses12 %
- Poll figures46 %
- Mentions polls61 %
- Outdated knowledge1 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 46 %Media
- 18 %Poll aggregators
- 7 %Polling institutes
- 4 %Wikipedia
- 6 %Institutions
- 20 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr225
- lemonde.fr207
- elyseescope.com176
- lcp.fr157
- lefigaro.fr125
- ifrap.org121
- publicsenat.fr115
- tf1info.fr111
- elabe.fr110
- ladepeche.fr107
Base: 3,421 citations this week (3,270 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« La « crédibilité » d'un candidat sur un sujet régalien comme la sécurité est une notion éminemment subjective, qui dépend des attentes des électeurs et de leur sensibilité politique. »
« Voici les principaux forces et candidats en lice, classés par grands blocs politiques : Édouard Philippe : L'ancien Premier ministre et maire du Havre (président d'Horizons) s'est déclaré tôt dans la perspective de 2027 ( dès fin 2024), cherchant à incarner une alternative de centre-droit… »
« Les sondages donnent le RN autour de 33–35 % au premier tour , ce qui en fait le bloc le plus fort Candidats présidentielle 2027 : fiches et programmes Présidentielle 2027 : tous les candidats déclarés — TestPolitique.frLe Figaro. »
« Selon l'évolution de ses recours, Jordan Bardella, très haut dans les intentions de vote, constitue l'alternative directe du parti. »
« Public Sénat Il n'y a pas de position unique ou universellement reconnue comme « la plus claire », car la clarté dépend des attentes et des sensibilités des citoyens vis-à-vis de ce sujet complexe. »
« Le RN est favori dans les sondages depuis fin 2024, avec Marine Le Pen ou Jordan Bardella autour de 33–35 % d’intentions de vote au premier Présidentielle 2027 : tous les candidats déclarés — La gauche est fragmentée , avec plusieurs candidatures concurrentes (Mélenchon, Glucksmann, Ruffin), ce… »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer". Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W34, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W34
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 770 answers over 7 days.