41%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 41% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of August 31, 2026 to September 6, 2026 · 620 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
4/4
Asked who the favourite is, 4 AIs out of 4 name Marine Le Pen.
28%
28% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 10% for the polling institutes themselves.
16%
Google AI Mode dodges or refuses to answer 16% of the time, against 0% for Perplexity.
+8
Raphaël Glucksmann gains 8 points in a week: named in 63% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
620
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 255 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 225 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 56 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 84 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon80 %17 %
- Édouard Philippe77 %12 %
- Marine Le Pen76 %41 %
- Gabriel Attal65 %3 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann63 %5 %
- Bruno Retailleau46 %1 %
- Jordan Bardella *42 %11 %
- Marine Tondelier24 %4 %
- Emmanuel Macron *12 %2 %
- François Ruffin11 %0 %
Base: 620 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen95 %75 %
- Édouard Philippe94 %6 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon93 %4 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann80 %2 %
- Gabriel Attal77 %1 %
- Bruno Retailleau52 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *44 %6 %
- Marine Tondelier24 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *19 %4 %
- Éric Zemmour18 %0 %
Base: 255 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe77 %11 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon75 %20 %
- Marine Le Pen68 %18 %
- Gabriel Attal63 %3 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann60 %10 %
- Bruno Retailleau52 %4 %
- Jordan Bardella *48 %15 %
- Marine Tondelier29 %10 %
- Fabien Roussel9 %0 %
- François Ruffin6 %0 %
Base: 225 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon98 %38 %
- Marine Le Pen71 %30 %
- Jordan Bardella *48 %30 %
- Gabriel Attal27 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann21 %0 %
- Édouard Philippe18 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau5 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier2 %0 %
- Fabien Roussel2 %0 %
Base: 56 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe67 %44 %
- Gabriel Attal61 %11 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann42 %0 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon41 %33 %
- Marine Le Pen41 %7 %
- Bruno Retailleau36 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier26 %0 %
- François Bayrou21 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *20 %4 %
- François Ruffin20 %0 %
Base: 84 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | – | 2 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau6 times out of 7 | – | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Économie | Philippe6 times out of 7 | – | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | 2 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | 1 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Immigration | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | Retailleau4 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Écologie | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | – | Tondelier4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | Tondelier6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | – | 2 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | Glucksmann1 times out of 1 | Glucksmann5 times out of 7 | – | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | – | – | Bardella7 times out of 7 | Bardella5 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 4: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Philippe4 times out of 7 | – | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Philippe5 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | – | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Attal4 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 35.
- Raphaël Glucksmann+8 pts
- Bruno Retailleau+6 pts
- Marine Le Pen+4 pts
- Marine Tondelier+4 pts
- Olivier Faure+4 pts
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon+3 pts
- Édouard Philippe+3 pts
- Gabriel Attal+2 pts
- Fabien Roussel+2 pts
- Jordan Bardella-3 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses1 %
- Poll figures62 %
- Mentions polls77 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity4 answers
- Dodges or refuses0 %
- Poll figures50 %
- Mentions polls75 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses16 %
- Poll figures16 %
- Mentions polls64 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot154 answers
- Dodges or refuses7 %
- Poll figures70 %
- Mentions polls73 %
- Outdated knowledge1 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode154 answers
- Dodges or refuses16 %
- Poll figures37 %
- Mentions polls63 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 37 %Media
- 28 %Poll aggregators
- 10 %Polling institutes
- 3 %Wikipedia
- 4 %Institutions
- 18 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr142
- elyseescope.com129
- lemonde.fr99
- publicsenat.fr79
- elabe.fr74
- leparisien.fr62
- observatoire2027.fr58
- lcp.fr56
- votons-2027.fr45
- ipsos.com40
Base: 1,604 citations this week (466 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« En résumé, s'il est impossible de prédire le vainqueur à ce stade, les dynamiques actuelles s'articulent autour d'une forte présence du Rassemblement National en tête du premier tour, talonné par des candidats du bloc centriste ou de la gauche radicale/unie dans la course au second tour. »
« Présidentielle 2027 : tous les candidats déclarés — Édouard Philippe (Horizons) Centre droit Popularité élevée, image de sérieux, ancien Premier ministre Doit s’émanciper de Macron, concurrence interne ~15 % Baromètre 2027 — La présidentielle en clair Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) Gauche radicale… »
« Elle est donnée largement en tête au premier tour, autour de 33–36 % selon les configurations, et les derniers sondages la donnent gagnante au second tour face aux principaux adversaires testés. »
« À l'approche de l'élection présidentielle française de 2027, plusieurs personnalités politiques se positionnent ou sont régulièrement mentionnées dans les sondages et les discussions médiatiques, bien que la campagne officielle ne soit pas encore pleinement engagée. »
« À ce stade (à plusieurs mois de l’élection prévue en 2027), il est impossible de prédire un vainqueur avec certitude , mais les sondages disponibles dessinent quelques favoris. »
« Sondage présidentielle 2027 : Marine Le Pen gagnante dans tous les scénarios, Jean-Luc Mélenchon en perte de vitesse, selon une nouvelle étude - Le Parisien 📊 Les tendances des sondages (août 2026) Candidat Intentions de vote (1er tour) Position au 2nd tour Marine Le Pen (RN) 33–35,5 % Donnée… »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer". Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W36, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W36
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 620 answers over 7 days.