28%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 28% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of August 3, 2026 to August 9, 2026 · 330 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
4/5
Asked who the favourite is, 4 AIs out of 5 name Marine Le Pen.
14%
14% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 10% for the polling institutes themselves.
23%
Gemini dodges or refuses to answer 23% of the time, against 2% for Perplexity.
+4
Jordan Bardella gains 4 points in a week: named in 60% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
330
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 135 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 120 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 30 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 45 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe74 %15 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon64 %14 %
- Marine Le Pen63 %28 %
- Jordan Bardella *60 %19 %
- Gabriel Attal60 %6 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann43 %2 %
- Bruno Retailleau38 %3 %
- Marine Tondelier19 %3 %
- Emmanuel Macron *16 %3 %
- François Ruffin13 %0 %
Base: 330 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe95 %10 %
- Marine Le Pen94 %50 %
- Jordan Bardella *83 %22 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon76 %4 %
- Gabriel Attal76 %5 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann61 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau46 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *25 %6 %
- Marine Tondelier22 %0 %
- François Ruffin19 %0 %
Base: 135 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe67 %13 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon51 %14 %
- Gabriel Attal51 %8 %
- Jordan Bardella *50 %18 %
- Marine Le Pen45 %13 %
- Bruno Retailleau42 %9 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann36 %6 %
- Marine Tondelier18 %8 %
- Éric Zemmour7 %0 %
- Fabien Roussel6 %0 %
Base: 120 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon100 %37 %
- Marine Le Pen53 %30 %
- Jordan Bardella *53 %33 %
- Gabriel Attal37 %0 %
- Édouard Philippe20 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau3 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *3 %0 %
Base: 30 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe67 %47 %
- Gabriel Attal51 %9 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon40 %29 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann36 %2 %
- Emmanuel Macron *31 %7 %
- Marine Le Pen27 %2 %
- Bruno Retailleau27 %0 %
- François Ruffin27 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *24 %2 %
- Marine Tondelier24 %0 %
Base: 45 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Philippe2 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | – | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | – | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Attal2 times out of 3 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Attal3 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Mélenchon2 times out of 3 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Mélenchon2 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Attal1 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Philippe2 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau2 times out of 3 | Retailleau3 times out of 3 | – | – | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | 2 AIs out of 5: Retailleau |
| Économie | – | Retailleau3 times out of 3 | – | – | – | No dominant name |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Philippe3 times out of 3 | – | – | Mélenchon2 times out of 3 | – | 1 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Immigration | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | – | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Retailleau2 times out of 3 | Retailleau2 times out of 3 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Écologie | Tondelier3 times out of 3 | Jadot3 times out of 3 | Tondelier3 times out of 3 | Mélenchon3 times out of 3 | Tondelier3 times out of 3 | 3 AIs out of 5: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon2 times out of 3 | – | – | Mélenchon3 times out of 3 | – | 2 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | – | – | – | Mélenchon3 times out of 3 | – | 1 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann2 times out of 3 | Glucksmann3 times out of 3 | – | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Attal3 times out of 3 | 2 AIs out of 5: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | Bardella2 times out of 3 | Bardella2 times out of 3 | – | Bardella2 times out of 3 | Bardella3 times out of 3 | 4 AIs out of 5: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon3 times out of 3 | Mélenchon3 times out of 3 | – | Mélenchon3 times out of 3 | Mélenchon3 times out of 3 | 4 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Philippe2 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | 5 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Philippe3 times out of 3 | Attal3 times out of 3 | Attal3 times out of 3 | 3 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 31.
- Jordan Bardella+4 pts
- Gérald Darmanin+4 pts
- François Ruffin+3 pts
- Laurent Wauquiez+2 pts
- Emmanuel Macron+2 pts
- Xavier Bertrand+2 pts
- Marine Le Pen+1 pts
- Édouard Philippe-1 pts
- Fabien Roussel-1 pts
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-3 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT66 answers
- Dodges or refuses12 %
- Poll figures52 %
- Mentions polls62 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity66 answers
- Dodges or refuses2 %
- Poll figures38 %
- Mentions polls56 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini66 answers
- Dodges or refuses23 %
- Poll figures26 %
- Mentions polls58 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot66 answers
- Dodges or refuses9 %
- Poll figures80 %
- Mentions polls83 %
- Outdated knowledge2 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode66 answers
- Dodges or refuses15 %
- Poll figures44 %
- Mentions polls68 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 45 %Media
- 14 %Poll aggregators
- 10 %Polling institutes
- 5 %Wikipedia
- 5 %Institutions
- 22 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- elyseescope.com81
- lemonde.fr74
- lcp.fr64
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr64
- publicsenat.fr55
- lefigaro.fr52
- elabe.fr51
- fr.wikipedia.org49
- tf1info.fr47
- ipsos.com38
Base: 1,371 citations this week (1,776 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« À ce stade (août 2026), il est impossible de dire qui gagnera la présidentielle française de 2027. »
« LCP - Assemblée Présidentielle 2027 : tous les candidats déclarés — Les principaux candidats en lice Bloc politique Figures clés Situation actuelle Rassemblement national (RN) Marine Le Pen (candidate déclarée, mais affaire judiciaire en cours), Jordan Bardella (président du RN, possible… »
« Aujourd’hui, les sondages placent le Rassemblement national en tête pour la présidentielle française de 2027, avec Jordan Bardella et Marine Le Pen autour de 34–37 % des intentions de vote. »
« Le Rassemblement national (RN) et la droite nationaliste Marine Le Pen : Figurant parmi les principales favorites des sondages, elle a officialisé sa participation à la course à l'Élysée. »
« Il est impossible de prédire avec certitude le nom du futur vainqueur, mais les forces en présence se structurant autour de grands blocs se dessinent ainsi : 1\. »
« BFM +1 Voici un aperçu de la situation d'après les tendances et mesures des instituts de sondage : Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National) : Elle caracole en tête des intentions de vote au premier tour, créditée d'environ 34 % à 35,5 % des suffrages. »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer" (CC BY 4.0 licence). Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W32, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W32
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 330 answers over 3 days.