44%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 44% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of October 19, 2026 to October 25, 2026 · 915 answers from 6 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
5/6
Asked who the favourite is, 5 AIs out of 6 name Marine Le Pen.
21%
21% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 7% for the polling institutes themselves.
18%
Gemini dodges or refuses to answer 18% of the time, against 3% for Copilot.
+6
David Lisnard gains 6 points in a week: named in 14% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
6
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, LeChat
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
915
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 374 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 333 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 82 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 126 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon75 %16 %
- Marine Le Pen70 %44 %
- Édouard Philippe66 %8 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann56 %7 %
- Gabriel Attal46 %3 %
- Bruno Retailleau35 %2 %
- Marine Tondelier22 %4 %
- Jordan Bardella *21 %7 %
- Éric Zemmour16 %1 %
- David Lisnard14 %1 %
Base: 915 answers to 22 questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen91 %76 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon88 %6 %
- Édouard Philippe85 %1 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann74 %6 %
- Gabriel Attal57 %1 %
- Bruno Retailleau39 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier22 %0 %
- Éric Zemmour22 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *17 %1 %
- Fabien Roussel16 %0 %
Base: 374 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon65 %21 %
- Marine Le Pen59 %20 %
- Édouard Philippe59 %7 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann51 %8 %
- Gabriel Attal44 %2 %
- Bruno Retailleau39 %6 %
- Marine Tondelier29 %11 %
- Jordan Bardella *22 %10 %
- Éric Zemmour15 %2 %
- David Lisnard13 %2 %
Base: 333 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon99 %27 %
- Marine Le Pen72 %43 %
- Jordan Bardella *50 %31 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann13 %0 %
- Édouard Philippe12 %0 %
- Gabriel Attal11 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *7 %0 %
Base: 82 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe65 %38 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon45 %23 %
- Gabriel Attal45 %10 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann43 %11 %
- Marine Le Pen34 %9 %
- Bruno Retailleau32 %0 %
- David Lisnard23 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier21 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *21 %3 %
- Jordan Bardella *17 %0 %
Base: 126 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 6 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 6 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 6 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Glucksmann3 times out of 7 | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 6: Glucksmann |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 6 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau5 times out of 7 | Retailleau7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Économie | – | – | Philippe4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | – | Philippe3 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 6: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Immigration | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Retailleau2 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Retailleau4 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Écologie | Tondelier4 times out of 7 | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | Tondelier6 times out of 7 | Tondelier7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | Mélenchon4 times out of 6 | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 6: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 6: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | – | – | Glucksmann3 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 6: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | – | – | Bardella6 times out of 6 | Bardella3 times out of 7 | Bardella7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 6: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen5 times out of 6 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | LeChat | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 6: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | – | Attal5 times out of 7 | Attal6 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 6: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (6). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 42.
- David Lisnard+6 pts
- Marine Tondelier+6 pts
- Raphaël Glucksmann+6 pts
- Fabien Roussel+3 pts
- Éric Zemmour+3 pts
- François Hollande+2 pts
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan+2 pts
- Gabriel Attal+2 pts
- Emmanuel Macron-2 pts
- Jordan Bardella-3 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses5 %
- Poll figures68 %
- Mentions polls67 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity154 answers
- Dodges or refuses8 %
- Poll figures37 %
- Mentions polls66 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses18 %
- Poll figures17 %
- Mentions polls48 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot145 answers
- Dodges or refuses3 %
- Poll figures77 %
- Mentions polls72 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode154 answers
- Dodges or refuses12 %
- Poll figures49 %
- Mentions polls63 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
LeChat154 answers
- Dodges or refuses5 %
- Poll figures72 %
- Mentions polls60 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 39 %Media
- 21 %Poll aggregators
- 7 %Polling institutes
- 4 %Wikipedia
- 5 %Institutions
- 24 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- elyseescope.com144
- lemonde.fr117
- touteleurope.eu108
- publicsenat.fr100
- sondage-presidentielle.fr97
- elabe.fr92
- leparisien.fr92
- france-vote.fr87
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr84
- lcp.fr80
Base: 2,926 citations this week (2,986 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« En fin de compte, il n'y a pas de consensus absolu : la « crédibilité » dépend des attentes de chaque citoyen, qu'il privilégie la fermeté pénale, la prévention sociale ou l'efficacité opérationnelle des forces de l'ordre. »
« Arrive en tête des intentions de vote (35–38 %), malgré ses problèmes judiciaires. »
« Si l’on parle de la crédibilité perçue sur la sécurité , Bruno Retailleau semble en tête : un sondage cité en juin 2026 le plaçait devant Édouard Philippe et Gabriel Attal sur ce sujet. »
« À la date du 19 octobre 2026, il n’existe pas de réponse objective unique à la question de savoir quel candidat a le programme économique le plus solide pour la présidentielle française de 2027. »
« Elle arrive largement en tête dans tous les sondages récents, avec des intentions de vote oscillant entre 32 % et 38 % au premier tour, selon les instituts et les hypothèses de candidature. »
« Selon les analyses portées par le parti et ses soutiens, la priorité est donnée à une fermeté accrue, à la tolérance zéro, à la maîtrise de l'immigration et au rétablissement de l'autorité de l'État, des axes qui s'attirent traditionnellement un fort assentiment dans les classements d'intentions… »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer". Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W43, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W43
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, LeChat, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 915 answers over 7 days.