38%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 38% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of August 24, 2026 to August 30, 2026 · 683 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
5/5
Asked who the favourite is, 5 AIs out of 5 name Marine Le Pen.
20%
20% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 8% for the polling institutes themselves.
18%
Google AI Mode dodges or refuses to answer 18% of the time, against 2% for Perplexity.
+12
Marine Le Pen gains 12 points in a week: named in 71% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
683
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 283 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 244 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 62 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 94 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon77 %18 %
- Édouard Philippe75 %9 %
- Marine Le Pen71 %38 %
- Gabriel Attal63 %6 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann55 %4 %
- Jordan Bardella *45 %11 %
- Bruno Retailleau40 %3 %
- Marine Tondelier20 %2 %
- Emmanuel Macron *13 %2 %
- Éric Zemmour10 %0 %
Base: 683 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen91 %69 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon91 %9 %
- Édouard Philippe91 %2 %
- Gabriel Attal73 %4 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann65 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *51 %8 %
- Bruno Retailleau44 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *22 %3 %
- Marine Tondelier21 %0 %
- Éric Zemmour16 %0 %
Base: 283 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe73 %11 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon69 %23 %
- Gabriel Attal62 %6 %
- Marine Le Pen61 %13 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann58 %10 %
- Jordan Bardella *50 %13 %
- Bruno Retailleau49 %7 %
- Marine Tondelier24 %7 %
- Éric Zemmour7 %0 %
- Fabien Roussel7 %0 %
Base: 244 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon95 %29 %
- Marine Le Pen71 %34 %
- Jordan Bardella *48 %32 %
- Gabriel Attal26 %0 %
- Édouard Philippe21 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann18 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau3 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier3 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *3 %0 %
- Fabien Roussel3 %0 %
Base: 62 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe66 %35 %
- Gabriel Attal61 %14 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon42 %30 %
- Marine Le Pen40 %12 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann38 %1 %
- Bruno Retailleau29 %1 %
- François Bayrou22 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier21 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *20 %2 %
- François Ruffin19 %0 %
Base: 94 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 4 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 2 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 3 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Attal3 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 4 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 2 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 4 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 5 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Philippe3 times out of 4 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau7 times out of 7 | Retailleau2 times out of 2 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Économie | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon2 times out of 3 | Attal6 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | 1 AIs out of 5: Attal |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Philippe4 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | 1 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Immigration | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | Retailleau4 times out of 7 | Le Pen2 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Écologie | Tondelier5 times out of 7 | – | Tondelier5 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Tondelier5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Philippe2 times out of 2 | Mélenchon4 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 6 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | 2 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | Glucksmann3 times out of 3 | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | Bardella3 times out of 3 | – | Bardella5 times out of 7 | Bardella6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 3 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon3 times out of 3 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon5 times out of 7 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Philippe4 times out of 4 | Philippe5 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Attal3 times out of 3 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Attal7 times out of 7 | Philippe5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 34.
- Marine Le Pen+12 pts
- Raphaël Glucksmann+10 pts
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon+10 pts
- Gabriel Attal+8 pts
- Édouard Philippe+7 pts
- Marine Tondelier+2 pts
- Yannick Jadot+2 pts
- François Ruffin+2 pts
- Gérald Darmanin-7 pts
- Jordan Bardella-8 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses2 %
- Poll figures55 %
- Mentions polls77 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity68 answers
- Dodges or refuses2 %
- Poll figures47 %
- Mentions polls77 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses15 %
- Poll figures16 %
- Mentions polls66 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot153 answers
- Dodges or refuses2 %
- Poll figures71 %
- Mentions polls78 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode154 answers
- Dodges or refuses18 %
- Poll figures42 %
- Mentions polls63 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 44 %Media
- 20 %Poll aggregators
- 8 %Polling institutes
- 5 %Wikipedia
- 5 %Institutions
- 19 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr180
- lemonde.fr149
- elyseescope.com121
- publicsenat.fr102
- lcp.fr93
- elabe.fr87
- lefigaro.fr87
- fr.wikipedia.org85
- reuters.com82
- votons-2027.fr72
Base: 2,318 citations this week (916 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« Pour suivre l'évolution des intentions de vote et les analyses concernant l'élection présidentielle française de 2027, vous pouvez consulter les publications d'instituts de sondage et d'information politique : Consultez les analyses et enquêtes d'opinion sur le site de Elabe . »
« Juin 2026 ÉlyséeScope 2027 ÉlyséeScope Les principaux favoris selon les sondages Rassemblement national (RN) Marine Le Pen : créditée de 35 à 38 % des intentions de vote au premier tour selon RTL et Harris Interactive. »
« Les sondages le plaçaient très haut dans les hypothèses de premier tour. »
« Il est impossible de désigner un candidat "le plus crédible" de manière objective, la crédibilité en politique dépendant des attentes des électeurs, de leur sensibilité et de l'importance qu'ils accordent à tel ou tel angle de réforme (moyens financiers, organisation territoriale, fin de la… »
« Marine Le Pen : autour de 34–35 % au premier tour dans les agrégations disponibles. »
« Le RN est favori des sondages : Le Pen et Bardella dominent les intentions de vote, mais la candidature définitive dépendra notamment de l’issue judiciaire concernant Le Présidentielle 2027 : tous les candidats déclarés — 👉 À noter : La liste des candidats peut évoluer d’ici au scrutin des 18… »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer" (CC BY 4.0 licence). Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W35, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W35
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 683 answers over 7 days.