45%
Marine Le Pen is the first name the AIs give in 45% of their answers about the presidential election.
Sapian Metrics · AI barometer
What the AIs say about the 2027 French presidential election
Millions of voters now ask an AI their political questions. Every day we ask the main assistants the same questions, the way a pollster surveys its panel, and we measure what they answer.
Week of September 7, 2026 to September 13, 2026 · 623 answers from 5 AIs to 22 questions asked every day.
This week
The figures of the week
5/5
Asked who the favourite is, 5 AIs out of 5 name Marine Le Pen.
26%
26% of the sources the AIs cite are sites that republish polls, against 14% for the polling institutes themselves.
25%
Perplexity dodges or refuses to answer 25% of the time, against 1% for ChatGPT.
-5
Jordan Bardella loses 5 points in a week: named in 37% of the answers.
The method in brief
How the barometer works
Like a poll, the barometer relies on a fixed questionnaire asked under the same conditions every day. Here, the respondents are AIs.
22
questions about the election, asked in French
5
consumer AIs asked: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode
Every day
since July 20, 2026, results aggregated each week
623
answers analysed this week
Forecast9 questions · 257 answers
Who leads, who will win, who inspires trust.
Themes8 questions · 227 answers
Which candidate is most credible on a given issue.
Second rounds2 questions · 56 answers
Who would win a given run-off.
Positioning3 questions · 83 answers
Who embodies the left, the right, the centre.
The full list of questions is in the dossier. Download the PDF dossier
This week
Who the AIs name, and on which questions
The same candidate is not named the same way depending on the question. Pick a family of questions.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon80 %16 %
- Édouard Philippe78 %11 %
- Marine Le Pen76 %45 %
- Gabriel Attal66 %2 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann60 %5 %
- Bruno Retailleau44 %1 %
- Jordan Bardella *37 %9 %
- Marine Tondelier23 %3 %
- Emmanuel Macron *12 %3 %
- Éric Zemmour12 %0 %
Base: 623 answers to 22 questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Marine Le Pen97 %80 %
- Édouard Philippe95 %3 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon93 %3 %
- Gabriel Attal77 %3 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann71 %2 %
- Bruno Retailleau48 %0 %
- Jordan Bardella *41 %2 %
- Marine Tondelier26 %0 %
- Éric Zemmour23 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *21 %5 %
Base: 257 answers to the 9 "forecast" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon77 %22 %
- Édouard Philippe77 %11 %
- Marine Le Pen69 %22 %
- Gabriel Attal65 %2 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann61 %11 %
- Bruno Retailleau51 %4 %
- Jordan Bardella *38 %12 %
- Marine Tondelier26 %9 %
- François Ruffin7 %0 %
- Fabien Roussel6 %0 %
Base: 227 answers to the 8 "themes" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon96 %29 %
- Marine Le Pen70 %38 %
- Jordan Bardella *50 %32 %
- Gabriel Attal36 %0 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann27 %0 %
- Édouard Philippe20 %0 %
- Bruno Retailleau2 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *2 %0 %
- François Ruffin2 %0 %
Base: 56 answers to the 2 "second rounds" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Share of answers naming themNamedFirst
- Édouard Philippe69 %46 %
- Gabriel Attal55 %2 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann41 %0 %
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon39 %33 %
- Bruno Retailleau39 %0 %
- Marine Le Pen37 %8 %
- François Bayrou27 %0 %
- Marine Tondelier22 %0 %
- Emmanuel Macron *21 %7 %
- Gérald Darmanin19 %0 %
Base: 83 answers to the 3 "positioning" questions, 5 consumer AIs, this week.
Each AI's verdict
For each question, the name each AI gives
For each question and each AI, the name the AI gave first most often this week, and how many times.
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le favori | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui va gagner | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Qui pourrait devenir président | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Les principaux candidats | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| En tête des intentions de vote | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 5 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Qui progresse | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Glucksmann3 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 2 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Ce que disent les sondages | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Le plus présidentiable | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen1 times out of 1 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Attal5 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Inspire le plus confiance | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 5: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sécurité | Retailleau7 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Économie | Philippe7 times out of 7 | – | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | 1 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
| Pouvoir d'achat | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | – | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 1 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Immigration | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | – | Retailleau4 times out of 7 | Le Pen3 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Écologie | Tondelier5 times out of 7 | – | Tondelier6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Tondelier6 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Tondelier |
| Retraites | Mélenchon6 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Santé et hôpital | Mélenchon3 times out of 7 | Mélenchon1 times out of 1 | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | 3 AIs out of 5: Mélenchon |
| Europe | Glucksmann6 times out of 7 | – | Glucksmann7 times out of 7 | Le Pen4 times out of 7 | Glucksmann4 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 5: Glucksmann |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second tour Mélenchon - Bardellaobsolete | – | – | – | Bardella7 times out of 7 | – | 1 AIs out of 4: Bardella |
| Second tour Mélenchon - Le Pen | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | – | Le Pen6 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | Le Pen7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Le Pen |
| Question | ChatGPT | Perplexity | Gemini | Copilot | Google AI Mode | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le mieux placé à gauche | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | – | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | Mélenchon6 times out of 6 | Mélenchon7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Mélenchon |
| Le mieux placé à droite | Philippe4 times out of 7 | – | Philippe7 times out of 7 | Le Pen5 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 3 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
| Qui incarne le centre | Philippe7 times out of 7 | – | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Philippe6 times out of 7 | Philippe7 times out of 7 | 4 AIs out of 4: Philippe |
Consumer AIs only (5). Models queried through an API are shown apart, below.
In one week
Risers and fallers
Change in the share of answers naming the candidate, compared with week 36.
- Éric Zemmour+2 pts
- Fabien Roussel+2 pts
- François Ruffin-1 pts
- Marine Tondelier-2 pts
- Xavier Bertrand-2 pts
- Olivier Faure-2 pts
- Laurent Wauquiez-2 pts
- Bruno Retailleau-2 pts
- Raphaël Glucksmann-3 pts
- Jordan Bardella-5 pts
The AIs, one by one
How each AI answers
The AIs do not answer the same way: some dodge, others quote polls as facts.
ChatGPT154 answers
- Dodges or refuses1 %
- Poll figures57 %
- Mentions polls70 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Perplexity8 answers
- Dodges or refuses25 %
- Poll figures75 %
- Mentions polls75 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Gemini154 answers
- Dodges or refuses23 %
- Poll figures30 %
- Mentions polls66 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Copilot153 answers
- Dodges or refuses4 %
- Poll figures71 %
- Mentions polls75 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Google AI Mode154 answers
- Dodges or refuses15 %
- Poll figures43 %
- Mentions polls66 %
- Outdated knowledge0 %
Dodging since July
Sources
Where the AIs get their facts
The links the AIs cite to support their answers, classified by type of site.
- 28 %Media
- 26 %Poll aggregators
- 14 %Polling institutes
- 4 %Wikipedia
- 5 %Institutions
- 23 %Other sites
Aggregators' share since July
Most cited sites
- elyseescope.com146
- ipsos.com126
- sondages-presidentielle2027.fr108
- lemonde.fr82
- youtube.com74
- observatoire2027.fr67
- elabe.fr62
- publicsenat.fr55
- lefigaro.fr47
- ifrap.org46
Base: 1,642 citations this week (842 pages consulted but not cited, excluded).
In their words
What the AIs write
Excerpts of the week's answers, one per behaviour and per AI, picked automatically.
« En 2027, plusieurs personnalités politiques françaises sont déjà déclarées ou pressenties pour briguer la présidence, mais il est impossible de dire aujourd’hui qui sera élu. »
« Aujourd’hui, les sondages placent le Rassemblement national largement en tête pour la présidentielle française de 2027, avec Marine Le Pen ou Jordan Bardella autour de 32–35 % des intentions de vote. »
« Présidentielle 2027 : candidats, sondages et duels au 2ᵉ tour Édouard Philippe incarne une droite centriste et gestionnaire, avec un programme axé sur la rigueur budgétaire. »
« Même s'il est impossible de prédire avec certitude qui l'emportera, plusieurs personnalités politiques majeures se positionnent ou sont régulièrement citées par les observateurs : - Ministère de l'Intérieur Les principales forces politiques en lice Le Rassemblement national (RN) : Marine Le Pen… »
« Les dynamiques observées dans les intentions de vote s'articulent ainsi : En tête au premier tour : Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national) arrive largement en tête des estimations pour le premier tour, avec des intentions de vote oscillant généralement entre 34 % et 38 % selon les hypothèses de… »
« Facebook · Brut +2 Les principales forces en présence et figures marquantes s'articulent autour de plusieurs blocs : Marine Le Pen ( Rassemblement National ) : Figure dominante des sondages de premier tour, elle aborde cette échéance avec un socle électoral très stable et en tête des intentions de… »
For journalists
Press kit
Everything can be reused with the credit "Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer" (CC BY 4.0 licence). Each edition has a permanent link.
The edition's full dossier
Detailed method, full list of questions, every chart, verdicts per AI, sources, glossary.
Download the PDFHow to cite
Sapian Metrics, AI election barometer, France 2027, edition 2026-W37, https://barometre.sapianmetrics.com/en/france-2027?week=2026-W37
Press contact: contact@sapianmetrics.com
Method and limits
How we measure, and what we do not measure
What is measured
The barometer measures the answers AIs give voters, not voters' opinions. It says who the AIs name, who they put first, when they refuse to answer and which sources they rely on.
The AIs asked
Consumer AIs: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, Google AI Mode, queried through their public interfaces, like a user, every day since July 20, 2026. Models queried directly through an API, without web search, are shown apart and never added to the others.
How we count
A candidate is "named" when their name appears in the answer, and "named first" when they are the first candidate named. An AI's verdict on a question is the name it gives at the start of its answer; for a run-off, the one a winning verb is attached to. The same rules apply to every name and every AI; nothing is judged by hand or by another AI.
Behaviours
"Dodges or refuses", "poll figures", "mentions polls" and "outdated knowledge" are detected by fixed lists of French expressions. They describe how an AI answers, not whether the answer is right.
Sources
Each cited site is classified as media, polling institute, poll aggregator, Wikipedia, institution or other, from a fixed list published in the dossier.
Limits
AI answers vary from day to day and with the wording: that is why the questions are fixed and results are aggregated over a week. Collection gaps exist (Perplexity paused from 16 September to 13 October 2026, occasional errors on Copilot); rates always cover the answers actually collected. Grok is not covered for now. The barometer does not score the candidates and endorses no one.
This edition: 623 answers over 7 days.